12 Dec BREXIT….Should I Stay Or Should I Go – December 12, 2019
BREXIT…Should I Stay Or Should I Go
The Brits are at the polls today to supposedly decide their future. By all indications, the Conservatives look prime to win a strong mandate to Leave the European Union. For a variety of reasons, the majority of British want away from the Eurozone. I had dinner with a “Brexiter” a few months back while on vacation. I was curious as to their major motivations for wanting to leave and so I posed the question….” why do you all want to leave Europe?” What followed was a shortlist of grievances which centred around the idea of losing “British-Identity” and “way of life.” For example, European come to British shores to fish and the British are powerless to stop them. And the loss of Manufacturing at the expense of Eastern-European factories is another thorn-in-the-side. Then there is immigration – the idea that England can not prevent certain unsavoury Europeans from crossing the channel is difficult many to overcome. I don’t want to spend too much time arguing why these grievances are misplaced (is the future of Britain in fisheries…..? Do British children aspire to careers in manufacturing??) – I don’t live there and maybe I am missing some perspective.
However, what does strike me is that the Conservatives and Eurozone Parliament may, in fact, be quite content to leave things as they are. Despite the Conservative party being in charge for several years now, and despite months of negotiating, England remains in the Eurozone. The “HARD” deadline of October 31, 2019, came and went. There have been many “deadlines” over the past 2 years and all of them have came in went. While the Prime Minister may work feverishly to get a deal done, when it comes to a vote in the House of Parliament, it is rejected by members of their own party. I suspect we will see more of the same. The Conservatives use Brexit to remain in power, however, at the end of the day, no one can really stomach the idea of leaving Europe.
The European Parliament seems to be negotiating in good faith, however, they have made it clear that they can not live with an open border in Ireland. Short of an earthquake which severs the Island, I can see no way out of establishing a hard border in Ireland. And so, they remain in negotiations. I think this is fine for Europe. I believe they would be fine receiving British negotiators in Brussels for the next five years – it is no concern to them to listen to British politicians negotiate something which can’t be negotiated – so long as they remain in the Eurozone until an agreement can be reached.
As such, I see no BREXIT no matter the results of the election of 2019.